The AFC South is definitely one of the most condensed divisions in the NFL this season, and especially with the recent events in Indianapolis, one without a clear leader and relative parity through the rest of the teams.

It feels like the best place to start when trying to pick apart these teams would be at the most important position, one whose importance has been thrown into stark relief with the division being down one generational quarterback going into this year.

Let’s start with Jacoby Brisset – thrust into the spotlight with the shock retirement of Andrew Luck, he is now has the burden and the privilege of quarterbacking a team that many were tipping to be Superbowl contenders coming into this year. It is impossible to completely ignore the dress-rehearsal for this that Brisset went through back in 2017, but the situation now is very different indeed. The new regime has swung fully into force and bolstered the defence to the level that they are now amongst the best in the league. TY Hilton has another 2 seasons under his belt, and Funchess definitely feels like an upgrade over Donte Moncrief. The returning Jack Doyle gives the offense an dual-threat tight end core. Looking back at Brisset’s numbers from that 2017 season, the area he struggled the most in was intermediate throws, and throwing under pressure. As well as the natural improvement you would expect from having a couple of years of scheme acclimatisation under his belt, two great pass-catching tight ends should help him in the intermediate and the vastly improved offensive line should see him having to concern himself less with pace rushers blasting him as he’s trying to make a throw. When he had a chance to load up on the deep ball in 2017, he was amongst the top QB’s, so expect to see some eye-popping numbers between him and Hilton this year.

In a league where the QB position is so important, it is actually interesting to look at the Colts last year and consider that Luck was possible a cherry on top of their season by performing the way he did, rather than the be-all-and-end-all. The defence and offensive line were the standout units, and Marlon Mack showed flashes that he could be a league-leading RB. I therefore viewed the loss of Luck as being more of a psychological one than one that would have a significant impact on the field – Brisset should not present a season-changing dropoff and the rest of the team is complete enough that they should once again compete for the division or at least the wildcard.

For the Titans and Texans we have a couple of QBs who have struggled to stay on the field. Marcus Mariota is in definite make-or-break time, with many people already suggesting that as last season was drawing to a close. I’m sure that most of them will have considered that judgement would come on Mariota at the end of the season, but the trade for Ryan Tannehill could accelerate the timetable on a QB decision in Tennessee if Mariota once more flatters to deceive. Of course Mariota’s struggles have not at all been in isolation, and the Titans move for Rodger Saffold could be a sneaky-great acquisition if it adds some stability to the O-Line that has been missing for pretty much all of Mariota’s career so far. Throw in Adam Humphreys, who proved himself to be an excellent safety valve of a receiver for Jameis Winston last year and Mariota has been given a good chance to show he is worthy of the hype that followed him onto the scene and has been diminishing every season since.

DeShaun Watson could end up following a similar career path to Marcus Mariota – albeit Watson has had higher highs already when he’s been able to stay on the field. Watson certainly has huge upside, especially when combined with the seemingly unstoppable Hopkins to throw to. The Texans saw their biggest flaw and committed both Free Agency money and their first two draft picks to solidify a porous line that saw Watson having to play through a partially collapsed lung and broken ribs last year. If the defensive production of Watt and Mercilus can deliver on the potential of their combined quality, then they should have plenty still in the tank to cover the departure of Clowney.

The final quarterback in the division is certainly an interesting one, with Nick Foles emerging from his fallow year celebrating his Super Bowl victory to step into the shoes of the ever-disappointing Blake Bortles. Foles feels like a QB that is almost possible to project. Even in that fabled 2017 season, he finished the regular season ranking middle at best and close-to-last in many QB grades. He then of course went on to have one of the most amazing postseason runs in recent memory. Foles can quite easily sit somewhere between these two extremes though and still deliver sufficient if the Jacksonville defence can match the peak that they achieved 2 seasons ago. That defence was dominating enough that a Bortles-led offense saw them through to a 10-6 record, the division title and nearly a Superbowl. The defence has retooled, with top pick Josh Allen expected to immediately deliver and combined with the returning Campbell and Ngakoue, there should be nothing stopping them approaching their 2017 performance.

By finally jettisoning Bortles, the Jaguars have made the ultimate addition by subtraction, replacing a QB who generated a cloying sense of negativity that ultimately dragged a superstar defence down to his level. If Foles can be something close to superman Foles of the playoffs then the Jags have a chance to compete in a division that is wide open.