The woes of the Red Wings rebuild – both self-inflicted and those borne of bad luck have been well documented. From bad choices when they have picked highly (Filip Zadina) to worse luck in the lottery, there are plenty of ways to explain why the return to the playoffs has taken longer than expected. As patience is wearing paper thin at the sharp end of the rebuild, Wings fans are looking for what will be the driving force to take them back to the promise land. Step forward, Marco Kasper.

Vicious cycles are seen aplenty in sports, with owners often resembling gamblers chasing their losses – one bad decision leads to another as a team attempts to extricate themselves from a mess of their own making. In the Red Wings, the dearth of talent coming through from the draft has led to the recent strategy of picking high-floor but low-ceiling prospects with their high picks. This is an understandable approach after years of bad draft picks had left the prospect pool far thinner than it should have been. However, this doesn’t get away from the fact that those kind of players are rarely the ones that pull a team up from their bootstraps – out of mediocrity and into playoff hockey. Those figures tend to be the superstars – the ones that come in and energised a franchise, buy them a few wins that make the difference between the bubble and the playoffs, and importantly, become a beacon to attract other top talent to the team.

In Marco Kasper, the Red Wings selected a player who appeared to be in keeping with this philosophy – someone thought of as good, not great. Almost definitely an NHL player, but almost definitely not a topic player.

Fast forward to the cusp of his sophomore season, and the outlook for Kasper has changed in dramatic fashion. He may have started the season in Grand Rapids, but it was only a few games into the season before he was called up, and he seemed to never look back. Over the second half of the season, he led rookies in points, and for a few week stretches, he was among the top players in the league in scoring. All of this was taking place while he was able to maintain the ‘hard nosed’ aspects of his game that made him a poster boy for the ‘Yzerman type’ draft picks – hard checks, getting into the mix with the other team and being a general nuisance every game.

Another hugely admirable element of Kasper’s performance last season was his versatility – initially being a standout player as a wing on the top line, and then looking even more impressive when he was asked to step up as the second line center as Andrew Copp went down with a season-ending injury.

Having lived through years being talent-poor at both the NHL and prospect levels, the Wings then began to stock up on players in the mold of Kasper’s scouting report. In Danielsson, MBNA and Mazur, the Wings have three other top prospects who all are expected to perform an the NHL level, but none of whom currently are expected to be stars (let alone superstars) in the league. Unfortunately, while this approach is wholly understandable to restock the prospect coffers, it makes making the jump back to the playoffs more difficult.

It was the unexpected audition on the second line that underlined why Kasper could be the key to unlocking the Wings’ return to relevance. The NHL sits somewhere between the NFL and MLB in terms of prospect volatility. While some NFL high prospects do bust, and some late-round picks come from nowhere to be starts, generally players future in the league reflects their slotting in scouting reports. In MLB, the floor/ceiling of prospects has a much higher degree of variance compared to expectations. With the NHL sitting somewhere between the two, picking high-ceiling, low-floor prospects just present a risk that is counterintuitive to the thinking behind it as a strategy. Given it is expected that some of the raft of recent picks will just not be cut out of the NHL, the danger of the Wings’ approach is that after the attrition, if the remaining players just meet expectations, you’re not facing any real needles moving for your team.

This is why the performance of Marco Kasper next season will go a long way to determining the immediate future of the Wings, and how soon they exit their rebuild and enter the cohort of playoff contenders. If Kasper can anchor the second line center position then he answers a huge need, allowing the Wings to focus recruitment efforts by trade or future offseason free agency on other big needs at wing and defence. The really exciting thought experiment comes if you consider the effects of Kasper’s growth continuing to defy expectations even further. A recent clip went viral of him scoring a ‘Michigan’ in an offseason game. A moment to no doubt be couched in context, but still fuels the fire of wondering what would happen if Kasper adds more flair and scoring to the incredible foundation he has already shown.

Red Wings fans have already been treated to Lucas Raymond meeting expectations and then going on to surpass them in quick succession. If Marco Kasper could do the same and ascend to genuine first line center performance levels, then being able to slot Larkin in as the second line center immediately elevates the roster as a whole from one that appears capped out at players with grit, grind and a definitive ceiling, to one where the possibility of snipers like MBN and Carter Bear coming in and being the finishing pieces rather than expecting them to form the backbone of a return to relevancy.