We are in the dog days of Summer from an NHL reporting perspective. That means a plethora of ‘ranking the offseason’ or ‘way too early prediction’ articles are coming out. As usual, there are plenty of opinions flying around, but one that seems to be consistent across these articles is that the Red Wings have had a disappoint offseason of maintaining a status quo at best, or going backwards for those of a more pessimistic outlook.

I beg to differ

Technically actually – I agree with pretty much everything being written about the team – that deadwood (…Justin Holl) hasn’t be cut and that most of the additions are approximately of the level of players that were let go. All of this is pretty much bang on. What I disagree with is the conclusion that this means that the offseason has been a disappointment.

After the excitement of finally playing meaningful games at the end of the season, it would have been easy to assume that the Red Wings were marginal gains away from finally breaking the playoff drought. It would have been equally easy for Yzerman and the front office to buy into this narrative and overspend in years or term in the frenzy of free agency. But Yzerman seems to have believe the underlying stats rather than the result they gleamed and seen that the Red Wings weren’t a bad Stamkos (or {insert other big name here}) contract away from being a cup competitor.

The so called “Yzerplan” has come under increased scrutiny in the last couple of years, with people impatient for it to bear fruit. The problem with the narrative demanding overdue results are missing the fact that Yzerman’s plan has had to adapt over the years – either to his own missteps (Copp’s contract) or bad luck (no draft lottery wins). It is this adaption that has led us to the offseason that we have just sat through. The ‘gambles’ of previous seasons where Yzerman has doled out contracts of too much term or too much money in the hope that a borderline above average player somehow blossoms have given way to greater conservatism. I’m a fan of this form of the Yzerplan.

Last season was exciting, but nothing about the overall season performance suggested that the Red Wings were on the brink of Cup competitiveness. It’s possible some of the shot percentages and streaky goalie alchemy are repeated and this time the Red Wings sneak into the playoffs, but even then they are much more likely to be lambs to the slaughter of a Rangers or a Panthers rather than playing meaningful multi-round playoff hockey.

Given this is the case, we’re looking at a tough juggling act that very much comes under the strategy tagline of “Don’t screw things up”. By this I mean three things:

  • Leave space to finally give some rookies a shot
  • Have enough players around those rookies so they’re not coming into a losing environment
  • Don’t commit medium-term cap you might need when you’re ready to make those free agency gambles

The offseason we’ve experienced is achieving all three of these things. It’s likely that we’ll see at least 3 and potentially up to 5 or 6 rookies for a decent amount of games this season. At best this means we see the internal growth that will bridge the talent gap resulting from no lottery luck and limited free agency gambles.

The likes of Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko are proven winners who can instill what it means to win a cup to a group of players where many haven’t sniffed the postseason, let alone a cup. While the expectation of the team remains tempered, no one is expected the Red Wings to be BAD – so even if they miss out on the playoffs, the rookies blooded this season are unlikely to be brutalised by the kind of perpetual losses that often plague a team trying to come out the other side of a rebuild.

Say what you want about the Yzerplan – it’s apparent that he fully buys into the “fool me once…” mantra, as this offseason we have may have not seen flashy signings, but the consensus on the Red Wings free agency is that they are all high-celing players and all on contracts that are almost free of risk in terms of money and in terms of term.

The upcoming season may feel like the Red Wings are stagnating, and critics are likely to be proved right that the offseason did not move the needle. But, this season could well be looked back on as the beginning of the end of the long playoff drought. Somewhere there is a parallel universe where Yzerman gambled and made it rain in free agency frenzy this offseason. In the multiverse, that path could lead to a surprise playoff run and maybe even a cup, but if we were to play out all of the possibilities, that route feels much more likely to have set the Red Wings back. Things may not feel sexy right now, but a couple of rookie breakouts and progression from a Raymond, a Seider and a Debrincat could see the plan finally coming to fruition, not just for a single year flirtation with the cup, but for a genuine foundation for a dynasty.